Silicon Metal Prices Temporarily Stable Strong Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts in Polysilicon Sector [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM November 26:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal prices held steady this week. The average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 825 yuan/mt, caking silicon coal prices ranged from 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon coal in Shaanxi was about 880 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon coal in Inner Mongolia was about 1,260 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was about 930 yuan/mt, and the average price of granular coal was about 1,050 yuan/mt.

Supply: Although washing plants maintained the pace of producing based on sales, operating rates declined in some regions due to falling demand.

Demand: Based on the weekly operating rates of downstream silicon plants, the overall operating rate was relatively stable WoW, and demand for silicon coal also remained relatively stable.

Silicon Metal

Price: Spot silicon metal prices were stable. Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day, and #441 silicon was at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt, also flat from the previous day. In the futures market, the SI2601 contract fluctuated in the range of 8,940-9,050 yuan/mt. Downstream purchasing as needed transactions occurred. Attention is turning to environmental protection-related situations in the north as December approaches.

Production:

In November, the main decrease in silicon metal supply variables was seen in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, with a small increase in the north, resulting in a significant overall MoM decrease, and total national supply showed a decline.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 548,000 mt on November 20, an increase of 2,000 mt WoW. This included 129,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 2,000 mt WoW, and 419,000 mt in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot warehouse portions), flat WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Silicone

Price

DMC: The transaction price yesterday was 13,100-13,300 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt WoW. Stimulated by the price atmosphere over the past week, most rigid demand customers entered the market for procurement.

D4: The quotation yesterday was 13,100-14,100 yuan/mt, up 850 yuan/mt WoW.

107 Silicone Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 13,700-14,000 yuan/mt, up 1,600 yuan/mt WoW.

Raw Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 14,000-14,000 yuan/mt, up 1,250 yuan/mt WoW.

Silicone Oil: The quotation yesterday was 14,600-14,800 yuan/mt, up 950 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

Supply increased slightly WoW, mainly due to production resumptions at monomer facilities that had undergone maintenance earlier.

Inventory:

Monomer enterprises primarily focused on fulfilling pre-sold orders this week, and inventory levels remained relatively stable.

Polysilicon

Prices:

Quotes for polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon were 49.6-44.9 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 50-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index at 51.9 yuan/kg. Market prices were largely stable overall, with some individual enterprises still holding quotes firm. Top-tier enterprises slowed down their futures delivery actions, and recent news included the official naming of related companies. However, downstream sentiment remained generally weak, with issues of production cuts and price reductions persisting. Under the influence of opposing factors, spot prices temporarily stabilized.

Production:

Polysilicon production in November was estimated at 115,000 mt. Production suspension schedules in Sichuan and Yunnan regions remained normal. December polysilicon production was expected to be largely stable, with possible increases and decreases in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia regions.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory rose slightly this week. Wafer enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was limited recently, but some low-priced orders from earlier were shipped, leading to a slight inventory buildup of polysilicon.

Wafer

Prices

Market prices for 18X wafers were 1.2 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 1.25 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.55-1.58 yuan/piece. Wafer prices converged again, with wafer sizes of all dimensions approaching cash costs; some enterprises with poor non-silicon cost control already saw prices fall below cash cost.

Production

According to surveys, enterprises accelerated the pace of production cuts by the end of November, with a noticeable decrease in toll processing orders at specialized plants. Therefore, it was basically confirmed that the actual production schedule for the month might be lower than expectations.

Inventory

The inventory buildup trend for wafers slowed down. Solar cell plants showed obvious gaming sentiment and were temporarily not strongly willing to restock. Total wafer inventory was below a reasonable level, with top-tier enterprises holding prices firm for shipments.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Current domestic prices for inner-layer sand were 58,000-63,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 25,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Domestic high-purity quartz sand prices remained temporarily stable. Recent import sand negotiations entered the second stage, currently deadlocked in a standoff, while domestic sand prices held steady.

Production

Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises began appropriate production cuts, but supply pressure remained significant.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory levels increased slightly. Crucible enterprises had not yet started negotiations or purchases.